NHỮNG NỀN KINH TẾ NÀO SẼ PHÁT TRIỂN MẠNH TRONG THỜI ĐẠI AI?

- Nghiên cứu của Capital Economics đánh giá ảnh hưởng của AI đối với 33 quốc gia dựa trên 40 chỉ số, nhằm xác định khả năng tận dụng AI để cải thiện năng suất và tăng trưởng kinh tế.
- Hoa Kỳ dẫn đầu trong việc tận dụng AI, với khả năng tăng năng suất trung bình 2.3% hàng năm trong thập kỷ 2030, nhờ vào vị thế hàng đầu trong lĩnh vực công nghệ.
- Các "Hổ Châu Á" bao gồm Hồng Kông, Singapore, Đài Loan, và Hàn Quốc, cùng với Vương quốc Anh và một số quốc gia Bắc Âu, cũng nằm trong nhóm dẫn đầu về AI.
- Trung Quốc, mặc dù có năng lực đổi mới mạnh mẽ và đầu tư lớn vào AI, có thể gặp khó khăn do khuôn khổ quy định cứng nhắc, làm tăng khoảng cách kinh tế với Hoa Kỳ.
- Các thị trường mới nổi gặp thách thức trong việc tận dụng lợi ích từ AI do sự hạn chế trong động lực của khu vực tư nhân và ngành công nghệ kém phát triển.

📌 Nghiên cứu của Capital Economics cho thấy Hoa Kỳ và các "Hổ Châu Á" bao gồm Hồng Kông, Singapore, Đài Loan, và Hàn Quốc, cùng với Vương quốc Anh và một số quốc gia Bắc Âu, cũng nằm trong nhóm dẫn đầu về AI, với Hoa Kỳ dự kiến tăng năng suất 2,3% hàng năm trong thập kỷ 2030. Trong khi đó, Trung Quốc có thể gặp khó khăn do hệ thống quy định cứng nhắc. Các thị trường mới nổi cần vượt qua những rào cản về động lực kinh doanh và công nghệ để không bị tụt hậu trong cuộc đua tận dụng AI, điều này đòi hỏi sự chuyển đổi mạnh mẽ trong cách tiếp cận và đầu tư vào công nghệ.

Trích gốc báo cáo:

ASIAN TIGERS AND THE UK WELL-PLACED TO BENEFIT

The Asian Tigers (Hong Kong, Singapore, Korea and Taiwan) rank highly. Singapore is in second place, with Korea and Hong Kong also in the top 10. These economies perform well on diffusion and adaptation in particular. Indeed, a feature of their export-led development and subsequent move up the value chain has been their ability to adapt quickly to new technology. For example, Korea was able to replicate technology from Japan when developing its heavy industry in the 1970s and repeated the trick with the growth of the digital TV market in the 2000s.

What’s more, the Asian Tigers may act with more urgency than some of their peers to implement AI technology in order to counter the mounting demographic drag from ageing populations. With immigration unlikely to fully offset the impact of falling birth rates, there is more onus on lifting productivity to sustain economic growth. AI offers the chance to do that. And there is a practical benefit in deploying AI across an elderly population too given its cutting-edge applications in drug discovery and medical diagnoses.

The UK comes third. This may come as a surprise given its perennially low investment rate. But set against that, the UK has a world-class higher education system that draws in top talent from around the world. As a result, it has a particularly high ranking in our Index for AI innovation. Global AI-leader Google DeepMind is based in London. The UK’s economy is more services-oriented than most others too, lending itself to the relatively quick diffusion of AI. And its flexible labour market should help the wider economy adapt to the challenges and opportunities presented by AI.

JAPAN AND EURO-ZONE PLAYING CATCH-UP

Japan and most euro-zone economies sit somewhere between the US and China in our ranking. Japan (16^th place) does have a strong track record in technological innovation and is facing the same demographic drag as the Asian Tigers, which may increase the speed of AI adoption. But it has a poor recent record in diffusing new technology across the economy. For example, cash is still used more widely in Japan than in any other major rich economy. Government surveys show that the vast majority of businesses still use fax machines. It’s difficult to pin down the reasons for this but one factor may be a culture of risk aversion, itself related to the aftermath of the bursting of the asset price bubble in the early 1990s.

There are several constraints facing major economies in the euro-zone. It’s notable that, in stark contrast to the US (and to a lesser extent the UK), the euro-zone did not receive a productivity boost from the ICT revolution in the 1990s/early 2000s. It’s likely that several other factors – including German reunification and euro-zone monetary union – overwhelmed the impact of ICT on productivity. But weaker productivity growth was also because the US played a bigger role in driving the technological advances and therefore got a bigger boost from the expansion of the ICT sector. History may be repeating itself in that regard. Indeed, Europe’s less developed venture capital industry and its relatively poor cloud infrastructure – a critical component in the development of AI – does not bode well for its innovation potential.

What’s more, a combination of familiar structural problems is also likely to hold back the diffusion of AI, at least relative to the US. In the 1990s/2000s, European companies were generally smaller and less able to achieve economies of scale from IT. Labour markets were less flexible, making it harder to reorganise the workplace to take advantage of new technologies. Local planning restrictions and regulations were onerous too (and slowed the move to “big box” retailing). Many of these issues persist.

There are differences between ICT and AI. But these differences may make Europe even less well placed to benefit from AI than from ICT. For example, European policymakers may be more likely to subject AI to regulation than policymakers in other countries. Over 100 countries rolled out Google Bard before it became operational in the EU. Other examples will follow: the European Parliament has already proposed legislation to outlaw practices such as biometric surveillance.

Of course, the euro-zone itself isn’t a homogenous bloc; some countries will do better than others. Countries with workforces that have higher levels of AI-related skills and/or greater network readiness (Germany, France) are better placed to adapt than those with fewer AI skills and low network readiness. (Italy, Spain). (Chart 3.) Overall, as we discuss later in this Chapter, we still anticipate that the euro-zone economy will benefit from the AI revolution. It’s just that, relative to the US, the boost to productivity growth is likely to be smaller.

Citations:
[1] https://www.cryptopolitan.com/which-economies-will-thrive-in-the-age-of-ai/