Trung Quốc dùng đất hiếm làm đòn bẩy khiến Mỹ nới chip AI

  • Mỹ vừa nới lỏng hạn chế xuất khẩu chip AI Nvidia H20 và AMD MI308 cho Trung Quốc như một phần trong gói thỏa thuận thương mại đang được đàm phán song phương.

  • Quyết định được đưa ra ngay trước vòng đàm phán cấp cao sắp tới, cho thấy hai bên đang "chuyển hướng" về phía đàm phán G2, theo chuyên gia Zhuang Bo (Loomis Sayles).

  • Nvidia xác nhận chính phủ Mỹ đảm bảo sẽ cấp giấy phép, trong khi AMD cho biết Bộ Thương mại đang xem xét lại đơn xuất khẩu.

  • Bộ trưởng Tài chính Mỹ Scott Bessent cho rằng quyết định này là một phần trong “bức tranh ghép” đàm phán Geneva và London, nhấn mạnh Mỹ đang ở “vị trí tốt” và trấn an thị trường trước hạn áp thuế 12/8.

  • Trung Quốc siết xuất khẩu đất hiếm từ tháng 4/2025 như đòn đáp trả các hạn chế chip và thuế từ Mỹ. Dù đã nối lại xuất khẩu sang Mỹ, sản lượng chưa phục hồi như trước.

  • Theo Bộ trưởng Thương mại Mỹ Howard Lutnick, Nvidia H20 chỉ là “đồ cấp 4”, đủ để làm Trung Quốc phụ thuộc vào công nghệ Mỹ mà không ảnh hưởng an ninh quốc gia.

  • Giáo sư Cui Fan cho rằng Mỹ duy trì chiến lược kiểm soát biên: khi Trung Quốc phát triển tương đương, Mỹ sẽ nới để cạnh tranh thị phần, tạo áp lực lên các nhà sản xuất nội địa Trung Quốc.

  • Tuy nhiên, sản xuất chip AI nội địa Trung Quốc vẫn chưa đáp ứng đủ nhu cầu, đặc biệt về hiệu năng đa dụng. Việc nới lỏng sẽ giúp nước này phối hợp nguồn lực quốc tế và chuỗi cung ứng tốt hơn.

  • Morgan Stanley nhận định đây là tín hiệu tích cực ban đầu trong tiến trình khôi phục quan hệ, nhất là khi có tin Tổng thống Trump cân nhắc thăm Trung Quốc.

  • Tuy nhiên, nguy cơ suy thoái kinh tế, giảm phát và khủng hoảng bất động sản tại Trung Quốc vẫn là những yếu tố gây cản trở tiến trình này.


📌 Việc Mỹ bật đèn xanh cho xuất khẩu chip AI cấp thấp sang Trung Quốc không chỉ giúp hạ nhiệt căng thẳng mà còn thể hiện sự nhượng bộ chiến lược sau khi Bắc Kinh dùng đất hiếm làm đòn bẩy. Nvidia H20 và MI308 trở thành quân bài thương lượng, mở ra cơ hội cho hội nghị cấp cao và “thiết lập lại” quan hệ Mỹ-Trung theo mô hình G2, dù những rủi ro kinh tế vẫn còn hiện hữu.

 

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3318471/how-easing-ai-chip-controls-could-reshape-us-china-trade-talks

How easing of AI chip controls could reshape US-China trade talks

Beijing’s rare earth curbs turned chips into leverage – paving the way for concessions that could reset ties, analysts say
 
 
Luna Sunin Beijing
The United States’ decision to ease export restrictions on certain advanced chips – part of a broader package of trade agreements with China – is seen by experts as an early sign that high-level negotiations have steered bilateral relations in the right direction.
Washington’s move to resume license application reviews for Nvidia’s H20 AI and Advanced Micro Devices’s MI308 AI chips comes ahead of talks between senior officials from both nations in the coming weeks, despite a protracted strategic stand-off over tech and export controls.
Zhuang Bo, global macro strategist at Loomis Sayles Investment Asia, said the development was a clear win for China – effectively resetting the clock to March, before rare earths became a geopolitical chokepoint.
“It signals that Beijing is inching closer to the G2-style negotiations it has long sought, framed in official rhetoric as a call for ‘mutual respect and equality.’”
While the reality on the ground has not changed much, the situation has not deteriorated, he added. “Whether there will be a Xi-Trump summit later this year will be crucial. If that happens, a partial agreement is still possible.”
On Tuesday, AMD said the US Department of Commerce was reviewing its licence applications to export MI308 chips to China, and that sales would resume once approved.
Nvidia also hopes to resume deliveries of its made-for-China H20 GPUs soon. “The US government has assured NVIDIA that licences will be granted,” the company said in a statement on Monday.
In an interview with Bloomberg on Tuesday, US Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said the move was “part of a mosaic” of trade agreements that came out of the separate rounds of high-level talks in Geneva and London, where it served as a “negotiating chip”.
“They had things we wanted. We had things they wanted… We are in a very good place… and I tell market participants not to worry about August 12 [the tariff deadline with China],” Bessent said.
 
 
 
 
 
 
Nvidia to resume selling H20 graphic processing chips to China in boon for AI
Exports of rare earths – a group of critical minerals widely used in electric vehicles, aerospace and advanced electronics – have become a flashpoint in the intensifying US-China trade rivalry in recent months.
Beijing tightened controls on shipments in April, a move widely seen as a countermeasure to US restrictions on advanced semiconductor exports and rising tariffs.
Bessent previously confirmed that China had resumed rare earth magnet exports to the US, although volumes have not yet returned to pre-April levels. He said Nvidia’s H20 could be exported so long as Chinese manufacturers were producing equivalent chips.
US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC the resumption of chip sales is linked to the rare earth deal. Washington approved the exports because Nvidia’s H20 chips are “not our second-best stuff, not even our third-best” but only the fourth, he said.
“You want to sell the Chinese enough that their developers get addicted to the American technology stack,” Lutnick said. “That’s the thinking.”
Bessent said the focus must now shift to China “opening its markets” and increasing “domestic and consumer production there”.
“The one thing that we do not want is a digital belt and road springing up around the world because other countries or China are substituting for our American chip manufacturers,” he said, adding that he expects to meet China’s vice-premier in a third country in the coming weeks.
Easing H20 export controls is a positive step for both China and the US, and carries even greater strategic significance for Beijing, said Cui Fan, a professor of international trade at the University of International Business and Economics, on his public social media account.
“The US has long followed what I call a policy of marginal control: once China develops products or technologies with similar capabilities, Washington tends to relax restrictions to squeeze the market share of Chinese competitors,” he said.
While China’s domestic AI chips are advancing rapidly, he said, domestic production still struggles to meet demand, particularly in terms of capacity and general-purpose performance.
“The AI sector is evolving at breakneck speed, and the relaxation of H20 controls gives us far more room to coordinate both domestic and international resources and foster greater synergy across the supply chain,” Cui said.
“At the same time, easing restrictions also aligns with the development interests of the US chip industry.”
“Just as the Geneva talks on tariffs marked the beginning of a strategic stalemate in US-China tariffs negotiations, the London discussions may signal a similar phase on export controls,” he added.
Morgan Stanley said in a report published on Tuesday that the H20 decision, along with media reports suggesting US President Donald Trump is considering a visit to China, could be early signs that bilateral relations are moving in a more positive direction.
However, the investment bank cautioned that macroeconomic weaknesses in China persist, including deflationary pressures and a housing slump, while further clarity is needed from coming Politburo meetings and economic data releases.

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